Fudging Numbers

Anti-RH groups will hold what they call the “grandmother of all rallies” against the RH bill. I hope the attendance numbers will not be fudged again just to promote their cause.

Fudged again? Here’s a chronicle of the numbers game that took place for a similar show-of-force attempt last month (all underscoring supplied):

2/11/2011 – press release by Human Life International, 100,000

On Sunday, February 13, 100,000 pro-life activists will march through Manila in opposition to a so-called “Responsible Parenthood” bill that has been repackaged to appeal to the pro-life majority of Filipinos.

2/12/2011 – news report on an anti-RH rally in Cebu, 1 million

… Dr. Rene Josef Bullecer, Human Life International director, said the bill, which is being readied for deliberations, is the same as the previously filed proposals that aimed to make way for abortion and other ways that hamper human life. … On Sunday, around one million people are expected to attend a rally against the RH bill in Manila.

2/13/2011 – website post by YouthPinoy, an anti-RH Catholic youth alliance, 5,000

Of the estimated 5,000 people at this pro-life rally mainly organized by Pro-Life Philippines and the CBCP Commission on Family and Life, there are several thousands of young people who have chosen to spend their Sunday protesting against the highly-controversial RH Bill or the Responsible Parenthood Bill.

2/14/2011 – news report by Malaya, 5,000

Organizers said the rally which was participated in by some 5,000 would be the first in a “show of force” events.

2/14/2011 – news report by CBCP News, 10,000

“We stand with you for life,” said Lanao del Norte 2nd District Rep. Fatima Aliah Dimaporo, a Muslim, told the around 10,000 protesters.

2/15/2011 – news report by PNA, 5,000

“We stand with you for life,” said Lanao del Norte 2nd District Rep. Fatima Aliah Dimaporo, a Muslim, told some 5,000 protesters who joined the rally at the PICC complex.

2/18/2011 – news report by LifeSiteNews.com, over 50,000

Over 50,000 pro-life Filipinos gathered in opposition to the so-called reproductive health (RH) bill last Sunday at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City.

Anti-RH groups predicted two attendance figures: 100,000 and 1 million. Then they reported three figures for actual attendance: 5,000, 10,000 and over 50,000. Two news sources gave the same attendance estimate: 5,000.

Who’s telling the truth? I think you can figure that out for yourself. (Kudos to YouthPinoy!)


14 comments

  1. What is less surprising is that of the three people interviewed on national TV, none of them seems to know what they are fighting for.

  2. The numbers in the articles are clearly ESTIMATES (number of people who are EXPECTED to come). Any group who has a GOOD cause to pursue would surely be OPTIMISTIC about the number of people whom they expect to attend. In the same view, any group who has a BAD cause to pursue would surely be PESSIMISTIC in the way they view things. : )

    • And only a really, really shitty statistician would think there's not much of a difference between 1 million and 50,000 attendees.

      • perhaps 1 million people did RSVP but 95% backed out at the last minute? or maybe they failed to take into account all the "invisible" attendees, maybe the spirits of all those dead sperm cells that met their tragic demise in those evil, evil condoms 🙂

        I was actually hoping they'd do a candlelight vigil as well – in memory of the millions of sperm cells that died a horrible kleenex death… oh the horror of it all…. with the anti-RH crowd its all about quantity – how can one compare a million dead sperm cells with the lives of just a piddly 11 mothers? no contest.

        • Thank you for your replies. I do appreciate it. This would probably be my last post. On the PulseAsia survey, what people do not know is that SWS only asked if they are in favor with modern family planning methods, without really explicating the term "modern." Certainly, the Natural Family Planning method is one of these modern methods, as it was conceptualized and studies under the light of modern medical science. Moreover, statistics cannot be a wholly objective basis for such arguments because we all know that statistical correlations can be skewed, and as what you say TAMPERED. Secondly, it may be true that there are 11 mothers who are dying daily, as what Lagman re-affrimed in todays issue of PDI. However, what are the real and direct causes of these deaths? Pregnancy? I think no. Pregnancy is certainly not a disease. The real cause of maternal deaths here in the country is the lack of prenatal care and the lack of OB-GYNE assistance, as what has been repeatedly affirmed by the Philippine Medical Association. Instead of giving out condoms to the poor, why not provide them a more trustworthy prenatal health care program, why don't provide them with cotton balls, alcohols, and basic medical necessities that are so lacking in barangay level health care centers, not to mention in their own homes. Lacking because of mis-allocation of funds. Lacking because of widespread graft and corruption. Lacking because of another lack -that of conscience.

          • @Mark, <<numbers in the articles are clearly ESTIMATES…number of people who are EXPECTED to come>>
            No. An inflated attendance claim was made by lifesitenews.com. The much larger estimates provide context, a possible explanation why the attendance number was falsified.

            <<without really explicating the term "modern.">>
            No. This 2008 Pulse Asia survey enumerated pills, IUD, ligation, condom vasectomy. 82% agreed that "it is the duty of government to provide knowledge, services and materials" http://pulseasia.com.ph/resources/photos/table2_R

            <<Pregnancy is certainly not a disease.>>
            Pregnancy complications are. The WHO's International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) lists, classifies and codes all of these in "Pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium" Chapter XV, Blocks 000-099. http://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd1
            If a woman who do not want to be pregnant fails to avoid pregnancy because of restrictions imposed by anti-RH forces, and dies or get hospitalized from any of the WHO listed complications, go tell her family what you claim: "Pregnancy is certainly not a disease"

            <<affirmed by the Philippine Medical Association>>
            The PMA supports the RH bill… http://philippinemedicalassociation.org/news.php?…
            so does the Phil. Obstetrical and Gynecological Society http://www.pogsinc.org/files/pogs_rhcb.pdf

            <<why not provide them a more trustworthy prenatal health care program>>
            The RH bill does this, plus more. It has a section on sufficient professional birth attendants for prenatal, delivery and postnatal care; and another section on enough health facilities, staff and supplies for emergency obstetric care. Read the bill.

            <<Lacking because of widespread graft and corruption>>
            Battling graft and corruption and providing RH care are not mutually exclusive.

            <<Lacking because of another lack -that of conscience.>>
            People who will continue to dismiss maternal deaths with distorted claims that "Pregnancy is certainly not a disease" are on top of my list of those lacking conscience.

      • Yes Sir, there may be a significant difference between the estimate and the actual number of people who did come. But then again, estimates work on the premise of potentiality, meaning that such a forecast may or may not be reached. Now, the more important thing is the reported number of people who did show their support, which is still a significant value, regardless of the issue whether the assumed number of attendees was met or not. Again, it cannot be over-emphasized that the PRO-LIFE supporters, who happened to be people appealing to the use of reason and not just to misleading emotional campaigns, are optimistic about the cause. It is also unreasonable to accuse the group of tampering the number of attendees (as what this post is suggesting) by basing such arguments on the estimates they made, since estimated values, by their very nature are based on perception. Hence, you cannot really TAMPER estimates. What one can tamper are ACTUAL data or value turn-outs. ^_^

  3. @arm – Dont you believe in miracles? 🙂

    you have to realize that Catholic math is different from regular math. If Jesus can magically multiply fish and loaves to feed the masses, so can the CBCP invoke its miraculous powers to increase their number of attendees (*ahem*, willing or otherwise…) out of thin air.

  4. required po ng school kami pumunta sa rally. attendence was checked on site, parents ko support naman ang RH bill pero kailangan pa rin pumunta, pati mga classmates ko napilitan din lang naman mag attend

    • We just need a lead, we just need the names of the schools and we can get the student memo's from there. If they used their Influence in schools to Require attendance, it is only BALANCED that they report it.

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